UNIVERSITY MATRICULATION EXAMINATION SCORES AS PREDICTORS OF FIRST YEAR GRADE POINT AVERAGE OF STUDENTS IN NIGERIAN UNIVERSITIES IN SOUTH-SOUTH, NIGERIA.
ABSTRACT
This study investigated the predictive validity of University Matriculation Examination Scores and the influence of gender, field of study and proprietorship of institution on the relationship between the matriculation examinations scores and students’ first year grade point average (FYGPA). Participants in this study consisted of 564 undergraduate (352 male and 212 female) students whose records were obtained from one federal-owned university and one state-owned university. The study was guided by 9 research questions and 9 hypotheses tested at 0.05 level of significance. The study adopted a correlational design and collected data from universities using the Institution and Student Characteristic Pro Forma (ISCP). The data collected was analyzed using hierarchical multiple linear regression analysis. The major findings of this study were as follows: (1) UTME scores did not significantly predict FYGPA (F1, 562 = 1.98, p = .160); UTME scores explained 0.4% of the variance of FYGPA. (2) PUME scores significantly predicted FYGPA (F1, 562 = 194, p = .000); PUME scores also explained 25.8% of the variance of FYGPA. (3) The combination of UTME scores and PUME scores significantly predicted FYGPA (F2, 562 = 97.34, p = .000); and also explained 25.8% of the variance of FYGPA. (4) The interaction between UTME scores and gender did not significantly enhance the predictive validity of UTME scores with regard to FYGPA (ΔF3, 560 = 3.39, p = .068); and explained 0.6% unique increase in the variance of FYGPA. (5) The interaction between PUME scores and gender significantly increased the predictive validity of PUME scores with regard to FYGPA (ΔF 3,560 = 8.66, p =.003); and also explained 1.1% unique increase in the variance of FYGPA (6) The interaction between UTME scores and field of study significantly enhanced the predictive validity of UTME scores with regard to FYGPA (ΔF9,554 = 4.74 p = .001); the interaction explained 3% unique increase in the total variance of FYGPA (7) The interaction between PUME scores and field of study significantly influenced the predictive validity of PUME scores with regard to FYGPA (ΔF9,554 = 10.29, p=.000);the also explained 4.9% unique increase in the variance of FYGPA (8) The interaction between UTME scores and proprietorship of institution did not significantly enhance the predictive validity of UTME scores with regard to FYGPA (ΔF (3,560) = 1.08, p=.300); the interaction accounted for only 0.2% unique increase in the variance of FYGPA (9) The interaction between PUME scores and proprietorship of institution significantly enhanced the predictive validity of PUME scores with regard to FYGPA, (∆F3,560 = 6.17, p=.013); the interaction explained 0.8% unique increase in the variance of FYGPA. One of the implications of this study is that PUME screening tests serve as a quality control measure in the university system. Among other things it was recommended that rather than seek for the proscription of the PUME screening tests, JAMB should redesign the UTME such that it will be have a higher predictive validity.