OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS, OIL REVENUE, AND WELFARE IN NIGERIA

ABSTRACT

Although crude oil in Nigeria is indeed a blessing, the fly in the ointment is the fluctuating price of oil which looks somewhat like a curse. The overdependence on crude oil as the country’s main product leads to Dutch disease syndrome. This study contributes to existing literature by estimating the impact of oil price fluctuations and oil revenue on welfare in Nigeria for the period 1981-2014. Employing the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimation technique within an Error Correction Modelling (ECM) framework, this study found that oil price fluctuations have no significant impact on welfare, while oil revenue has a positive and significant impact on welfare. The study recommends among other things that; government should save more when the price of oil rises above its benchmark and; to give full control and management rights of the Excess Crude Account (ECA) and Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) to the CBN without any form of interference.